I The realities
It’s official. We are in the midst of a teacher shortage. The situation is bleak. The future is likely to be even bleaker. Research by the Times Educational Supplement (6 April 2018) has revealed that we will need 47,000 extra high school teachers by 2024 – i.e. 22.5% more than we have at present – to educate the increasing number of pupils coming through the system, owing the primary bulge working its way through into the secondary sector.
The primary sector is better placed. From a low of 196,400 teachers in 2010, the number increased to 222,300 in 2016, the most recent figure available. This teacher increase has kept pace with the rise in pupil numbers from 3,947,450 in 2009 to 4,479,325 in 2016. The primary population has stabilised and is likely to remain as it is in the years to come, but who can predict demographic shifts or whether the nation can become more amorous. Also, to get to the 2005 pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) of 20.1 the nation will have to add another 8,000 teachers by 2024 at a time when the applications from people wanting to train as teachers is drying up – dropping by 26%.
There are no grounds for complacency. The apparent optimistic scene at primary level has not compensated for the decrease in the secondary sector, where the number of teachers fell from 222,400 in 2009 to 208,100 in 2016. If the government is to maintain the PTR of 15.1 which was the case in 2005, the number of teachers must be increased by 47,000 to 254,822 – according to the TES research.
The problem has been exacerbated by a fall in the number of 18-year-olds – the potential pool from which youngsters can be lured into the profession with appropriate training. In 2018, the number of 18-year-olds in England fell by 2.3% compared with 2017. This was in line with a drop of 2% of the total number of 18-year-olds applying to study further in higher education.
Further, the short-fall figure of 47,000 does not take account of teachers leaving the profession or moving abroad to teach in British schools or English-medium ones. The National Audit Office (NAO) reported that several qualified teachers leaving state schools before the official retirement age was rising. It increased from 9.3% in 2011 to 9.9% in 2016. Even though more teachers were returning to take up employment in state schools during that time, they were insufficient to compensate.
The situation in Modern Foreign Languages (MFLs) is dire. The DfE set a target to recruit 1,500 foreign language teachers in 2018. However, 6,200 (circa) degree holders graduate with at least a low second class honours each year graduate each year. To hit that target, the country must persuade 24.2% of these graduates to go into teaching to meet demand from schools/academies.
If the situation didn’t already look dire, it’s thrown into starker relief by the existing monumental recruitment challenge facing some subjects. While MFL teachers are conspicuous by their absence, in mathematics the situation is worse: 40% of the graduates who must become teachers. In English, 17% of all graduates with relevant degrees need to train as teachers.
Continue reading →